Aruba vs. Martinique: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $386 held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$385.76

Combined PnL

$195.52

Smart Money Entry

32.9¢ → 100¢

+204% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$345.06

Total Shares433

Combined PnL+$202.62

Over6 traders

Total Value$40.7

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$7.1

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Underavg 27.9¢	$47.76	$129.88	+$82.12	33% 593-1215 (1808)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 65¢	$46.4	$71.35	+$24.95	62% 246-150 (396)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 21¢	$17.24	$61.58	+$44.34	35% 235-434 (669)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 28.6¢	$16.98	$45.12	+$28.14	33% 589-1191 (1780)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$19.59	$29.35	+$9.75	48% 621-673 (1294)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 31.3¢	$9.22	$22.37	+$13.15	34% 610-1204 (1814)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 24.9¢	$4.84	$14.77	+$9.93	35% 622-1179 (1801)
nacaradogolCTR<$100	Overavg 42.5¢	$10	$5.65	-$4.35	— 7-7 (14)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$0.44	$2.64	+$2.2	44% 442-557 (999)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$2.61	$1.85	-$0.76	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 75¢	$3.75	$1.2	-$2.55	47% 508-580 (1088)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 37.3¢	$11.4	$0.02	-$11.38	46% 580-694 (1274)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$47.76

Value

$129.88

PnL

+$82.12

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$46.4

Value

$71.35

PnL

+$24.95

Record

62%

246-150 (396)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$17.24

Value

$61.58

PnL

+$44.34

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$16.98

Value

$45.12

PnL

+$28.14

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.59

Value

$29.35

PnL

+$9.75

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$9.22

Value

$22.37

PnL

+$13.15

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$4.84

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$9.93

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

nacaradogolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$4.35

Record

—

7-7 (14)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.44

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$2.2

Record

44%

442-557 (999)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.61

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.75

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$2.55

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.38

Record

46%

580-694 (1274)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.