Will Aruba vs. Martinique end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $774 held · ends Nov 12

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$774.23

Combined PnL

$1.09

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 84.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$657.55

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$13.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$116.69

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$12.32

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82.6¢	$540.54	$552.79	+$12.25	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$71.27	$63.38	-$7.89	32% 536-1124 (1660)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$53.97	$55.08	+$1.11	41% 543-780 (1323)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 84¢	$45.48	$45.48	+$0	33% 556-1107 (1663)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$30	$26.67	-$3.33	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$19.24	$18.64	-$0.6	33% 533-1106 (1639)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$8.5	$8	-$0.5	33% 551-1131 (1682)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.2	+$0.05	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

Flaznorp

Invested

$540.54

Value

$552.79

PnL

+$12.25

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.27

Value

$63.38

PnL

-$7.89

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$53.97

Value

$55.08

PnL

+$1.11

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$45.48

Value

$45.48

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$3.33

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.24

Value

$18.64

PnL

-$0.6

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.