Aruba vs. Martinique: Both Teams to Score
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 77¢ · $905 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$904.96
$216.98
45.8¢ → 76.5¢
+67% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 45¢ | $268.03 | $345.21 | +$77.17 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
LO lonmi2511 | Noavg 45¢ | $262.25 | $338.01 | +$75.76 | 60% 678-459 (1137) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 48.9¢ | $108.96 | $170.5 | +$61.54 | 33% 589-1191 (1780) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $12.33 | $14.52 | +$2.19 | 48% 621-673 (1294) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $18.71 | $14.12 | -$4.59 | 53% 6285-5568 (11853) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $8.28 | $10.44 | +$2.16 | 34% 610-1204 (1814) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $7.54 | $9.95 | +$2.41 | 47% 508-580 (1088) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $1.87 | $2.22 | +$0.34 | 41% 614-874 (1488) |
Invested
$268.03
Value
$345.21
PnL
+$77.17
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$262.25
Value
$338.01
PnL
+$75.76
Record
60%
678-459 (1137)
Invested
$108.96
Value
$170.5
PnL
+$61.54
Record
33%
589-1191 (1780)
poshposh<$100Invested
$12.33
Value
$14.52
PnL
+$2.19
Record
48%
621-673 (1294)
Invested
$18.71
Value
$14.12
PnL
-$4.59
Record
53%
6285-5568 (11853)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$10.44
PnL
+$2.16
Record
34%
610-1204 (1814)
Invested
$7.54
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$2.41
Record
47%
508-580 (1088)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$2.22
PnL
+$0.34
Record
41%
614-874 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.