Will Aruba win on 2026-11-12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 88¢ · $644 held · ends Nov 12

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$644.44

Combined PnL

$12.86

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 88¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$640.03

Total Shares702

Combined PnL+$13.23

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.39

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$0.37

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 87¢	$268.19	$271.37	+$3.18	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.5¢	$202.01	$211.84	+$9.83	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 88¢	$54.97	$54.35	-$0.62	34% 592-1164 (1756)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 87¢	$51.5	$52.1	+$0.59	28% 171-441 (612)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 87¢	$30.72	$31.08	+$0.35	59% 3556-2429 (5985)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 89¢	$10.87	$10.74	-$0.12	33% 585-1187 (1772)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 90¢	$8.54	$8.56	+$0.02	41% 589-849 (1438)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$4.76	$4.39	-$0.37	47% 1704-1945 (3649)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$268.19

Value

$271.37

PnL

+$3.18

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

Flaznorp

Invested

$202.01

Value

$211.84

PnL

+$9.83

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$54.97

Value

$54.35

PnL

-$0.62

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$51.5

Value

$52.1

PnL

+$0.59

Record

28%

171-441 (612)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$31.08

PnL

+$0.35

Record

59%

3556-2429 (5985)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$10.87

Value

$10.74

PnL

-$0.12

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$0.02

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.