Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tigres FC win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 17¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$394.59

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 17¢

-63% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,333

Combined PnL+$358.47

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,661

Combined PnL+$36.12

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 52.9¢	$647.16	$1.0K	+$361.55	18% 67-305 (372)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 43.7¢	$437.23	$480.48	+$43.25	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 47.3¢	$504.57	$410.43	-$15.89	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 47.5¢	$314.94	$323.7	+$8.75	52% 2600-2381 (4981)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$47.52	$48.51	+$0.99	56% 703-544 (1247)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 52¢	$25.99	$25.49	-$0.5	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 56¢	$22.29	$20.3	-$1.99	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$11.94	$12.18	+$0.24	36% 525-952 (1477)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$10.81	$10.22	-$0.59	35% 674-1228 (1902)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.61	$1.38	-$1.23	62% 295-180 (475)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$647.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$361.55

Record

18%

67-305 (372)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$437.23

Value

$480.48

PnL

+$43.25

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$504.57

Value

$410.43

PnL

-$15.89

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$314.94

Value

$323.7

PnL

+$8.75

Record

52%

2600-2381 (4981)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.52

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$0.99

Record

56%

703-544 (1247)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$25.99

Value

$25.49

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$22.29

Value

$20.3

PnL

-$1.99

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.94

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$0.24

Record

36%

525-952 (1477)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$10.81

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$0.59

Record

35%

674-1228 (1902)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$1.23

Record

62%

295-180 (475)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.