Real Cundinamarca vs. Real Cartagena FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
$12.28
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 41.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$4.44 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.9¢ | $914.65 | $1.1K | +$148.03 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41.4¢ | $982.26 | $829.79 | -$152.48 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 56.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$52.03 | 56% 1582-1267 (2849) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56.8¢ | $704.53 | $806.27 | +$101.74 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41.1¢ | $336.91 | $287.19 | -$49.71 | |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $8.61 | $20.49 | +$11.88 | 31% 410-897 (1307) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $10.92 | $12.28 | +$1.36 | 31% 412-918 (1330) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.75 | -$0.4 | 30% 401-920 (1321) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.75 | -$0.4 | 31% 410-923 (1333) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $0.86 | $0.7 | -$0.16 | 39% 162-258 (420) |
Invested
$1,896.91
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$4.44
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,041.44
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$52.03
Record
56%
1582-1267 (2849)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.61
Value
$20.49
PnL
+$11.88
Record
31%
410-897 (1307)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$12.28
PnL
+$1.36
Record
31%
412-918 (1330)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.4
Record
30%
401-920 (1321)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.4
Record
31%
410-923 (1333)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
39%
162-258 (420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.