Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Real Cundinamarca vs. Real Cartagena FC: O/U 1.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $68 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$68.16
-$2.11
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $46.9 | $39.36 | -$7.54 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 30.4¢ | $9.43 | $12.08 | +$2.65 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $5.05 | $6.35 | +$1.3 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $2.58 | $3.35 | +$0.77 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0 | 56% 1575-1256 (2831) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $2.2 | +$0.3 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $1.6 | $2.02 | +$0.41 | 38% 156-251 (407) |
Invested
$46.9
Value
$39.36
PnL
-$7.54
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$9.43
Value
$12.08
PnL
+$2.65
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$6.35
PnL
+$1.3
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$2.58
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.77
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1575-1256 (2831)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.3
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$0.41
Record
38%
156-251 (407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.