Will Real Cundinamarca win on 2026-11-11?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $286 held · ended Nov 11

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$285.95

Combined PnL

$1.8

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 63¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$162.73

Total Shares215

Combined PnL+$2.75

Yes3 traders

Total Value$123.23

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$0.95

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$95.16	$97.54	+$2.38	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$95.05	$93.8	-$1.25	30% 399-910 (1309)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$62.82	$61.47	+$0.42	52% 490-447 (937)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$27.53	$27.53	+$0	31% 407-907 (1314)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.76	$3.71	-$0.05	39% 382-610 (992)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.9	+$0.3	4% 11-269 (280)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$95.16

Value

$97.54

PnL

+$2.38

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.05

Value

$93.8

PnL

-$1.25

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$62.82

Value

$61.47

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.53

Value

$27.53

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

11-269 (280)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.