Real Cartagena FC leading at halftime?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $903 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$902.94
$3.29
72.3¢ → 72.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72.6¢ | $318.24 | $318.71 | +$0.47 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 71.9¢ | $233.22 | $235.07 | +$1.85 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.7¢ | $101.11 | $102.3 | +$1.19 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $78.41 | $78.58 | +$0.17 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $67.85 | $67.38 | -$0.46 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $55.91 | $56.3 | +$0.39 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $23.5 | $23.34 | -$0.16 | 30% 380-875 (1255) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.41 | $21.26 | -$0.15 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
Invested
$318.24
Value
$318.71
PnL
+$0.47
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$233.22
Value
$235.07
PnL
+$1.85
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$101.11
Value
$102.3
PnL
+$1.19
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$78.41
Value
$78.58
PnL
+$0.17
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$67.85
Value
$67.38
PnL
-$0.46
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$55.91
Value
$56.3
PnL
+$0.39
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$23.34
PnL
-$0.16
Record
30%
380-875 (1255)
Invested
$21.41
Value
$21.26
PnL
-$0.15
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.