Will Real Cundinamarca vs. Real Cartagena FC end in a draw?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $798 held · ended Nov 11

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$798.16

Combined PnL

$77.19

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 92¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$785.45

Total Shares961

Combined PnL+$83.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.71

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$6.05

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67.5¢	$499.91	$584.86	+$84.94	56% 1575-1256 (2831)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.4¢	$126.92	$121.86	-$5.05	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 79¢	$41.68	$41.68	+$0	38% 156-251 (407)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 70¢	$19.45	$21.95	+$2.5	31% 407-907 (1314)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 76¢	$9.5	$9.88	+$0.38	46% 292-339 (631)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$12.16	$8.51	-$3.65	31% 405-886 (1291)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 70¢	$4.75	$5.22	+$0.47	39% 382-610 (992)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$6.6	$4.2	-$2.4	40% 564-836 (1400)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$499.91

Value

$584.86

PnL

+$84.94

Record

56%

1575-1256 (2831)

Flaznorp

Invested

$126.92

Value

$121.86

PnL

-$5.05

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$41.68

Value

$41.68

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

156-251 (407)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$19.45

Value

$21.95

PnL

+$2.5

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.16

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$3.65

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.47

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$2.4

Record

40%

564-836 (1400)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.