Will Real Cartagena FC win on 2026-11-11?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 68¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 11

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$387.97

Combined PnL

$0.39

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 68¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$259.36

Total Shares397

Combined PnL+$4.92

Yes4 traders

Total Value$128.61

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$4.53

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 64¢	$228.47	$232.19	+$3.72	4% 11-269 (280)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$62	$60.28	-$1.72	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$55.8	$54.25	-$1.55	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 65¢	$25.97	$27.17	+$1.2	30% 373-861 (1234)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$11.88	$11.03	-$0.85	37% 339-567 (906)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.1¢	$4.19	$3.05	-$0.41	52% 441-414 (855)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$228.47

Value

$232.19

PnL

+$3.72

Record

11-269 (280)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62

Value

$60.28

PnL

-$1.72

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.8

Value

$54.25

PnL

-$1.55

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$25.97

Value

$27.17

PnL

+$1.2

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.03

PnL

-$0.85

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.19

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

441-414 (855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.