Deportes Quindio vs. Tigres FC: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.2K
$92.86
45.5¢ → 62.5¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 45.7¢ | $603.8 | $740.29 | +$136.49 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
LI Limousin | Underavg 44.7¢ | $249.23 | $211.64 | -$37.59 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 62¢ | $124 | $124 | +$0 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $59.45 | $50.2 | -$9.25 | 31% 411-924 (1335) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 53.6¢ | $24.75 | $26.78 | +$2.02 | 56% 1582-1267 (2849) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $2.93 | $4.12 | +$1.19 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
Invested
$603.8
Value
$740.29
PnL
+$136.49
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$249.23
Value
$211.64
PnL
-$37.59
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$124
Value
$124
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
Invested
$59.45
Value
$50.2
PnL
-$9.25
Record
31%
411-924 (1335)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$26.78
PnL
+$2.02
Record
56%
1582-1267 (2849)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$4.12
PnL
+$1.19
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.