Spread: Deportes Quindio (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tigres FC (50%) · Tigres FC at 85¢ · $723 held · ended Nov 12
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Neutral
Tigres FC
6
Tigres FC 50%
$723.31
$24.49
80¢ → 84.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTigres FC at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Tigres FCavg 80.1¢ | $549.24 | $579.31 | +$30.07 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Deportes Quindioavg 17.3¢ | $102.22 | $91.4 | -$10.82 | 56% 1582-1267 (2849) |
20 0x200f...7a96CTR<$100 | Deportes Quindioavg 33.8¢ | $26.13 | $33.23 | +$7.1 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Tigres FCavg 79¢ | $10.81 | $7.8 | -$3.01 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Deportes Quindioavg 21¢ | $2.87 | $5.88 | +$3.01 | 31% 412-920 (1332) |
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100 | Tigres FCavg 75.5¢ | $7.55 | $5.7 | -$1.85 | — |
Invested
$549.24
Value
$579.31
PnL
+$30.07
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$102.22
Value
$91.4
PnL
-$10.82
Record
56%
1582-1267 (2849)
Invested
$26.13
Value
$33.23
PnL
+$7.1
Record
—
Invested
$10.81
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$3.01
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$5.88
PnL
+$3.01
Record
31%
412-920 (1332)
Invested
$7.55
Value
$5.7
PnL
-$1.85
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.