Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Deportes Quindio win on 2026-11-11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $311 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$311.32
-$10.32
53.1¢ → 46.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $186.99 | $172.96 | -$14.03 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 49¢ | $109.78 | $116.5 | +$6.72 | 30% 371-860 (1231) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55.9¢ | $20.22 | $17.36 | -$2.86 | 37% 338-564 (902) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.68 | +$0.13 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $13.91 | $1.83 | -$0.27 | 52% 440-413 (853) |
Invested
$186.99
Value
$172.96
PnL
-$14.03
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$109.78
Value
$116.5
PnL
+$6.72
Record
30%
371-860 (1231)
Invested
$20.22
Value
$17.36
PnL
-$2.86
Record
37%
338-564 (902)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.68
PnL
+$0.13
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$13.91
Value
$1.83
PnL
-$0.27
Record
52%
440-413 (853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.