Will Union Magdalena win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$39.71

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 51¢

-14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$839.18

Total Shares1,473

Combined PnL-$37.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$633.94

Total Shares1,600

Combined PnL-$2

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$976.74	$769.26	-$207.48	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.1¢	$735.19	$440.42	-$294.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$241.55	$328.83	+$87.29
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 53.8¢	$601.64	$570.4	-$31.24	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
FI FinalOrderCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$10	18% 10-46 (56)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 76.9¢	$211.69	$207.91	-$3.78	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$83.95	$89.94	+$6	42% 762-1074 (1836)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$52	$54	+$2	18% 66-303 (369)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 73¢	$36.5	$36.5	+$0	35% 516-946 (1462)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$13.1	$14.16	+$1.06	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$9.1	$7.39	-$1.71	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74¢	$180.44	$2.81	-$2.04	53% 1989-1729 (3718)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$976.74

Value

$769.26

PnL

-$207.48

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

No$735.1985.1¢-$294.77

Yes$241.5536¢+$87.29

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$601.64

Value

$570.4

PnL

-$31.24

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

FinalOrderCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$10

Record

18%

10-46 (56)

SnakeBall

Invested

$211.69

Value

$207.91

PnL

-$3.78

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.95

Value

$89.94

PnL

+$6

Record

42%

762-1074 (1836)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52

Value

$54

PnL

+$2

Record

18%

66-303 (369)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$36.5

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

516-946 (1462)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$1.06

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$7.39

PnL

-$1.71

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$180.44

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$2.04

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.