Will Envigado FC win on 2026-11-15?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$39.99

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 85.5¢

+57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$873.64

Total Shares1,677

Combined PnL-$45.34

Yes2 traders

Total Value$203.97

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$85.33

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$1.3K	$642.48	-$695.31	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.7¢	$346.4	$376.46	+$30.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$991.39	$266.01	-$725.37
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$515.97	$515.87	-$0.1	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.1¢	$374.97	$355.23	-$19.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.5¢	$141	$160.65	+$19.64
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 60.6¢	$414.42	$383.15	-$31.27	18% 66-303 (369)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 43.1¢	$237.2	$234.03	-$3.17	42% 762-1074 (1836)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 59¢	$322.9	$230.02	-$7.1	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$113.04	$198.97	+$85.93	35% 516-946 (1462)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$16.65	$17.75	+$1.1	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 83¢	$13.59	$8.69	-$4.9	43% 580-772 (1352)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$5.6	$5	-$0.6	48% 2643-2871 (5514)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,337.79

Value

$642.48

PnL

-$695.31

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

No$346.478.7¢+$30.07

Yes$991.3954¢-$725.37

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$515.97

Value

$515.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Both legs:

No$374.9758.1¢-$19.74

Yes$14139.5¢+$19.64

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$414.42

Value

$383.15

PnL

-$31.27

Record

18%

66-303 (369)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$237.2

Value

$234.03

PnL

-$3.17

Record

42%

762-1074 (1836)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$322.9

Value

$230.02

PnL

-$7.1

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.04

Value

$198.97

PnL

+$85.93

Record

35%

516-946 (1462)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$16.65

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$1.1

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$4.9

Record

43%

580-772 (1352)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.