Will Envigado FC win on 2026-11-10?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 65¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 10

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$182.22

Combined PnL

$2.22

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 64.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$174.78

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$2.58

No3 traders

Total Value$7.44

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$0.35

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 60.2¢	$123.05	$122.2	-$0.86	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$49.15	$52.58	+$3.43	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$4.49	$4.14	-$0.35	30% 160-379 (539)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$2.18	$2.21	+$0.03	15% 97-565 (662)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.13	$1.09	-$0.03	48% 220-236 (456)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$123.05

Value

$122.2

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.15

Value

$52.58

PnL

+$3.43

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$0.35

Record

30%

160-379 (539)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.03

Record

15%

97-565 (662)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.