Will Boca Juniors de Cali win on 2026-11-15?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$3.5K
$316.2
73.5¢ → 99¢
+35% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+28 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 63.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.87 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 94.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$52.76 | 38% 1425-2328 (3753) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 49.9¢ | $410.67 | $554.81 | +$144.14 | 52% 2587-2373 (4960) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 94¢ | $248.28 | $261.49 | +$13.21 | 38% 1416-2272 (3688) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 59¢ | $143.95 | $234.23 | +$90.28 | 47% 130-145 (275) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60¢ | $120 | $190 | +$70 | 53% 1989-1729 (3718) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 92.5¢ | $103.81 | $111.05 | +$7.24 | 38% 1425-2300 (3725) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $78.36 | $5.81 | -$72.55 | 25% 1364-4143 (5507) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $0.2 | -$1.75 | 18% 66-303 (369) |
Invested
$1,094.89
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.87
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$1,021.11
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$52.76
Record
38%
1425-2328 (3753)
Invested
$410.67
Value
$554.81
PnL
+$144.14
Record
52%
2587-2373 (4960)
Invested
$248.28
Value
$261.49
PnL
+$13.21
Record
38%
1416-2272 (3688)
Invested
$143.95
Value
$234.23
PnL
+$90.28
Record
47%
130-145 (275)
VeryLucky888Invested
$120
Value
$190
PnL
+$70
Record
53%
1989-1729 (3718)
Invested
$103.81
Value
$111.05
PnL
+$7.24
Record
38%
1425-2300 (3725)
Invested
$78.36
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$72.55
Record
25%
1364-4143 (5507)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$1.95
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$1.75
Record
18%
66-303 (369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.