Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$0.28

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$821.8

Total Shares1,048

Combined PnL+$6.85

No5 traders

Total Value$303.52

Total Shares1,420

Combined PnL-$6.57

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 78¢	$586.17	$589.93	+$3.76	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
tradecraft	Yesavg 76.5¢	$153.56	$156.58	+$3.02	30% 331-772 (1103)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 22¢	$132.13	$129.13	-$3	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$95.24	$93.08	-$2.16	36% 926-1642 (2568)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$73.5	$72.57	-$0.93	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 78.3¢	$67.31	$67.49	+$0.18	56% 460-366 (826)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.8	-$0.1	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 22.4¢	$8.01	$7.69	-$0.32	42% 989-1357 (2346)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.05	-$0.15	41% 688-1005 (1693)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$586.17

Value

$589.93

PnL

+$3.76

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

tradecraft

Yes

Invested

$153.56

Value

$156.58

PnL

+$3.02

Record

30%

331-772 (1103)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$132.13

Value

$129.13

PnL

-$3

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$95.24

Value

$93.08

PnL

-$2.16

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$73.5

Value

$72.57

PnL

-$0.93

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.31

Value

$67.49

PnL

+$0.18

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.01

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$0.32

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

688-1005 (1693)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.