Will Alianza FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$43.8

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,676

Combined PnL+$11.11

Yes5 traders

Total Value$48.63

Total Shares1,977

Combined PnL-$54.91

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95¢	$997.75	$1.0K	+$8.93	47% 969-1095 (2064)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95¢	$294.25	$295.49	+$1.24	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
Secondhandvinyl	Noavg 98.5¢	$239.37	$239.72	+$0.35	76% 280-89 (369)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$38.72	$38.98	+$0.25	36% 510-915 (1425)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 94¢	$31.96	$32.3	+$0.34	55% 527-431 (958)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$27.6	$23	-$4.6	47% 312-350 (662)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$64.34	$16.08	-$48.25	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$9.54	$7.91	-$1.62	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.46	$1.22	-$0.25	31% 370-819 (1189)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.42	-$0.18	41% 705-1014 (1719)

SnakeBall

Invested

$997.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.93

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

Flaznorp

Invested

$294.25

Value

$295.49

PnL

+$1.24

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Secondhandvinyl

Invested

$239.37

Value

$239.72

PnL

+$0.35

Record

76%

280-89 (369)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$38.72

Value

$38.98

PnL

+$0.25

Record

36%

510-915 (1425)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.96

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$0.34

Record

55%

527-431 (958)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.6

Value

$23

PnL

-$4.6

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.34

Value

$16.08

PnL

-$48.25

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.54

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$1.62

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.25

Record

31%

370-819 (1189)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$0.18

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.