Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-11-12?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 66¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$368.59

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 66¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,027

Combined PnL+$358.15

No5 traders

Total Value$389.65

Total Shares1,057

Combined PnL+$10.44

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Yesavg 59.1¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$315.51	33% 533-1106 (1639)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 63.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$13.24	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.1¢	$799	$854.42	+$55.41
└ No leg	Noavg 38.5¢	$442.4	$373.75	-$68.65
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 59.9¢	$524.52	$559.93	+$35.41	33% 551-1131 (1682)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 33¢	$273.14	$281.47	+$8.33	32% 536-1124 (1660)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 63.8¢	$214.51	$221.73	+$7.22	33% 556-1107 (1663)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$65.95	$65.63	+$1.28	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$19.81	$20.58	+$0.76	36% 209-368 (577)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$18.1	$18.52	+$0.42	41% 543-780 (1323)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.45	-$0.35	38% 482-799 (1281)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$2,990.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$315.51

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,241.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.24

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Both legs:

Invested

$524.52

Value

$559.93

PnL

+$35.41

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$273.14

Value

$281.47

PnL

+$8.33

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$214.51

Value

$221.73

PnL

+$7.22

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$65.95

Value

$65.63

PnL

+$1.28

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$19.81

Value

$20.58

PnL

+$0.76

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$18.1

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$0.42

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

482-799 (1281)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.