Llaneros FC leading at halftime?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$218.77

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,050

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$75.25

Total Shares4,733

Combined PnL$-1.8K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 58.8¢	$2.8K	$4.8K	+$2.0K	54% 1789-1504 (3293)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 77.4¢	$159.6	$206.05	+$46.45	34% 362-700 (1062)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$80.42	$29.83	-$50.59	45% 143-173 (316)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$55.64	$20.96	-$34.68	34% 685-1328 (2013)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$32.1	$12.2	-$19.9	35% 700-1328 (2028)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$26.55	$10.09	-$16.46	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	83% 468-98 (566)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 39.3¢	$1.7K	$2.1	$-1.6K	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$62.98	$0.07	-$49.68	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,842.83

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

1789-1504 (3293)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$159.6

Value

$206.05

PnL

+$46.45

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.42

Value

$29.83

PnL

-$50.59

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.64

Value

$20.96

PnL

-$34.68

Record

34%

685-1328 (2013)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.1

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$19.9

Record

35%

700-1328 (2028)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.55

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$16.46

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

83%

468-98 (566)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,651.87

Value

$2.1

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.98

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$49.68

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.