Will Llaneros FC vs. Boyacá Chicó FC end in a draw?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$37.22
73.5¢ → 69¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 73¢ | $914.69 | $952.28 | +$37.59 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $274.43 | $347.44 | +$73.01 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $157.1 | $240.42 | +$83.32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.3¢ | $117.33 | $107.02 | -$10.31 | |
TH thirdt1me<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $89.09 | $80.17 | -$8.92 | 46% 180-208 (388) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $67.77 | $76.55 | +$8.78 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $32.3 | $32.3 | +$0 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $12.91 | $12.8 | -$0.11 | 33% 629-1267 (1896) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $5.71 | $5.61 | -$0.1 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.9 | +$0.15 | 34% 639-1259 (1898) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $3.69 | $3.61 | -$0.08 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.28 | +$0.02 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.08 | -$0.13 | 38% 509-821 (1330) |
RN1Invested
$914.69
Value
$952.28
PnL
+$37.59
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
Invested
$274.43
Value
$347.44
PnL
+$73.01
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.09
Value
$80.17
PnL
-$8.92
Record
46%
180-208 (388)
Invested
$67.77
Value
$76.55
PnL
+$8.78
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
Invested
$32.3
Value
$32.3
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
Invested
$12.91
Value
$12.8
PnL
-$0.11
Record
33%
629-1267 (1896)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$5.61
PnL
-$0.1
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
34%
639-1259 (1898)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.61
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$0.13
Record
38%
509-821 (1330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.