Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-11-12?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 13

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$309.95

Combined PnL

-$2.86

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 89.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$222.57

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$87.38

Total Shares812

Combined PnL-$15.86

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 83¢	$179.23	$192.13	+$12.9	33% 587-1187 (1774)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$64.19	$47.57	-$16.61	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$35.75	$37.31	+$1.56	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 89¢	$13.35	$13.35	+$0	34% 592-1166 (1758)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$8.95	+$0.05	52% 816-742 (1558)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.09	$8.14	+$0.05	46% 485-564 (1049)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$2.75	$2	-$0.75	38% 505-817 (1322)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.5	-$0.05	41% 590-850 (1440)

LightParadox

Invested

$179.23

Value

$192.13

PnL

+$12.9

Record

33%

587-1187 (1774)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.19

Value

$47.57

PnL

-$16.61

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.75

Value

$37.31

PnL

+$1.56

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

592-1166 (1758)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

PnL

-$0.75

Record

38%

505-817 (1322)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

590-850 (1440)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.