Independiente Santa Fe vs. AD Pasto: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 56¢ · $925 held · ended Nov 8

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$924.68

Combined PnL

$18.27

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 55.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$589.75

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$48.98

Under6 traders

Total Value$334.93

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$30.7

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 48.5¢	$464.54	$509.45	+$44.91	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$150.29	$146.91	-$3.37	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 47.2¢	$2.36	$114.18	-$23.19	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$54.19	$54.1	-$0.09	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 45.7¢	$27.61	$27.46	-$0.15	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 46¢	$19.06	$22.76	+$3.69	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 57.8¢	$25.25	$21.67	-$3.57	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 45.3¢	$20.35	$19.99	-$0.36	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.76	$4.71	-$0.05	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 54.5¢	$2.99	$3.45	+$0.47	50% 32547-32694 (65241)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$464.54

Value

$509.45

PnL

+$44.91

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$150.29

Value

$146.91

PnL

-$3.37

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$2.36

Value

$114.18

PnL

-$23.19

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$54.19

Value

$54.1

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.61

Value

$27.46

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$19.06

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$3.69

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.25

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$3.57

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.35

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$0.36

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$2.99

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.