Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-11-09?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$149.51

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 98.4¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,887

Combined PnL+$150

No5 traders

Total Value$23.61

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$0.49

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$178.4	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
RN1	Yesavg 96.9¢	$232.77	$234.39	+$1.62	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
dips.	Yesavg 96.1¢	$108.44	$108.65	+$0.21	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 82.9¢	$132.12	$101.05	-$31.06	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$25.2	$26.03	+$0.84	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$9.06	$9.56	+$0.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$99.58	$9.46	+$0.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$1.62	$2.67	+$1.05	45% 31906-39016 (70922)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 22.3¢	$3.35	$1.42	-$1.92	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 3.7¢	$1.11	$0.5	-$0.62	46% 30568-35672 (66240)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,269.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$178.4

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$232.77

Value

$234.39

PnL

+$1.62

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$108.44

Value

$108.65

PnL

+$0.21

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$132.12

Value

$101.05

PnL

-$31.06

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.2

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$0.84

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$0.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$99.58

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$1.05

Record

45%

31906-39016 (70922)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$1.92

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.62

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.