Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. AD Pasto end in a draw?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.3K
$14.83
93.7¢ → 98.5¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlickRick123 | Noavg 94¢ | $372.24 | $390.06 | +$17.82 | 47% 6221-6932 (13153) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90.6¢ | $225.57 | $304.11 | +$0.92 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 94.7¢ | $249.77 | $260.54 | +$10.77 | 50% 65477-65792 (131269) |
AH aHjCz | Noavg 99¢ | $160.18 | $160.02 | -$0.16 | 45% 31906-39016 (70922) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $72.84 | $72.02 | -$0.81 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $42.7 | $39.71 | +$0.21 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $46.39 | $39.15 | -$7.24 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $12.71 | $8.03 | -$4.68 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $7.91 | $7.39 | -$0.53 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $3.22 | $1.75 | -$1.47 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
Invested
$372.24
Value
$390.06
PnL
+$17.82
Record
47%
6221-6932 (13153)
Invested
$225.57
Value
$304.11
PnL
+$0.92
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$249.77
Value
$260.54
PnL
+$10.77
Record
50%
65477-65792 (131269)
Invested
$160.18
Value
$160.02
PnL
-$0.16
Record
45%
31906-39016 (70922)
Invested
$72.84
Value
$72.02
PnL
-$0.81
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$42.7
Value
$39.71
PnL
+$0.21
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$46.39
Value
$39.15
PnL
-$7.24
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$12.71
Value
$8.03
PnL
-$4.68
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$7.39
PnL
-$0.53
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$1.47
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.