Will AD Pasto win on 2026-11-09?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$42.49

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 97.2¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares9,137

Combined PnL+$43.57

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$1.08

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.8¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$15.31	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 96.4¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$24.47	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GC GC-P	Noavg 97¢	$314.99	$315.51	+$0.53	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Noavg 97¢	$311.45	$311.97	+$0.52	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.6¢	$281.01	$280.24	-$0.77	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.5¢	$250.9	$252.59	+$1.69	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$58.42	$58.42	-$0	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 97¢	$33.92	$33.92	-$0.01	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 82¢	$9.99	$11.82	+$1.83	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.51	$0.43	-$1.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

LightParadox

Invested

$4,252.55

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$15.31

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,321.33

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$24.47

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GC-P

Invested

$314.99

Value

$315.51

PnL

+$0.53

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Invested

$311.45

Value

$311.97

PnL

+$0.52

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Limousin

Invested

$281.01

Value

$280.24

PnL

-$0.77

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

cigarettes

Invested

$250.9

Value

$252.59

PnL

+$1.69

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$58.42

Value

$58.42

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$33.92

Value

$33.92

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$1.83

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.