Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$32.28

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 70.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$750.32

Total Shares1,117

Combined PnL-$11.92

Yes5 traders

Total Value$267.15

Total Shares899

Combined PnL-$20.36

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 68¢	$480.89	$466.51	-$14.38	11% 36-290 (326)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$236.46	$217.71	-$18.75	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69.9¢	$132.9	$133.95	+$1.05	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 67¢	$78.81	$73.21	+$0.74	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 68¢	$47.6	$47.95	+$0.35	55% 502-403 (905)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.4¢	$32.35	$30.5	-$1.85	48% 280-301 (581)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 66¢	$19.8	$19.65	-$0.15	41% 702-1012 (1714)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$15	$15.25	+$0.25	48% 281-301 (582)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$8.59	$9.06	+$0.47	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$2	$1.97	-$0.03	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.72	+$0.03	42% 1031-1416 (2447)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$480.89

Value

$466.51

PnL

-$14.38

Record

11%

36-290 (326)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$236.46

Value

$217.71

PnL

-$18.75

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$132.9

Value

$133.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$78.81

Value

$73.21

PnL

+$0.74

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$47.6

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.35

Value

$30.5

PnL

-$1.85

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

281-301 (582)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$8.59

Value

$9.06

PnL

+$0.47

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.