Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$17.41

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 59¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$543.98

Total Shares1,461

Combined PnL-$33.77

No8 traders

Total Value$837.44

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL+$16.35

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$825.34	$821.97	-$3.36	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$537.74	$524.7	-$13.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.2¢	$287.6	$297.27	+$9.67
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$496.98	$471.49	-$25.49	11% 36-290 (326)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 58.1¢	$334.92	$334.06	-$0.86	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 60¢	$300	$315	+$15	48% 280-301 (581)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 60¢	$79.36	$83.33	+$3.97	36% 979-1704 (2683)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$57.33	$56.6	-$0.73	55% 502-403 (905)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Noavg 60¢	$30	$30.25	+$0.25	48% 281-301 (582)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 62¢	$30	$27.26	-$2.74	40% 442-667 (1109)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$21.54	$21.52	-$0.02	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 59¢	$20.65	$21.18	+$0.53	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$470.59	$14.02	-$7.52	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 60¢	$4.61	$4.84	+$0.23	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	41% 702-1012 (1714)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$825.34

Value

$821.97

PnL

-$3.36

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

Invested

$496.98

Value

$471.49

PnL

-$25.49

Record

11%

36-290 (326)

Flaznorp

Invested

$334.92

Value

$334.06

PnL

-$0.86

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Gaditima

Invested

$300

Value

$315

PnL

+$15

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$79.36

Value

$83.33

PnL

+$3.97

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.33

Value

$56.6

PnL

-$0.73

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

thirdt1me<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$30.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

281-301 (582)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$27.26

PnL

-$2.74

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$21.54

Value

$21.52

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$20.65

Value

$21.18

PnL

+$0.53

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$470.59

Value

$14.02

PnL

-$7.52

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.23

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.