Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (96%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali: O/U 5.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 4.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$189.62

Smart Money Entry

13.9¢ → 4.5¢

-68% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$267.89

Total Shares3,367

Combined PnL-$197.84

Under4 traders

Total Value$442.72

Total Shares478

Combined PnL+$8.22

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 94¢	$634.9	$639.17	+$4.28	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ Under leg	Underavg 94¢	$470	$462.5	-$7.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 7¢	$164.9	$176.67	+$11.78
JA JabJabichCTR	Overavg 14.1¢	$453.3	$256.37	-$196.93	32% 31-67 (98)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 90.3¢	$208.6	$213.68	+$5.07	55% 502-403 (905)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	Overavg 7¢	$112.77	$123.07	+$10.31	45% 263-319 (582)
└ Over leg	Overavg 7¢	$65.66	$70.35	+$4.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 82.6¢	$47.11	$52.73	+$5.62
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 94.4¢	$111.34	$112.69	+$1.35	76% 257-83 (340)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Underavg 87.4¢	$60.87	$62.66	+$1.79	51% 163-158 (321)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 90¢	$53.69	$53.69	-$0	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 9.5¢	$48.94	$8.03	-$1.65	48% 301-331 (632)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$2	$2.6	+$0.6	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$0.75	$0.9	+$0.15	55% 5404-4376 (9780)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$634.9

Value

$639.17

PnL

+$4.28

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

Invested

$453.3

Value

$256.37

PnL

-$196.93

Record

32%

31-67 (98)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$208.6

Value

$213.68

PnL

+$5.07

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$112.77

Value

$123.07

PnL

+$10.31

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

Both legs:

Over$65.667¢+$4.69

Under$47.1182.6¢+$5.62

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$111.34

Value

$112.69

PnL

+$1.35

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Under

Invested

$60.87

Value

$62.66

PnL

+$1.79

Record

51%

163-158 (321)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$53.69

Value

$53.69

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.94

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$1.65

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.