Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali: O/U 4.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Over22¢Under78¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$94.6

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 78.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,973

Combined PnL+$47.36

Over2 traders

Total Value$294.34

Total Shares1,102

Combined PnL+$47.24

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Underavg 81¢	$660.96	$714	+$53.04	33% 168-336 (504)
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 66¢	$500	$484.84	-$15.15	20% 48-193 (241)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Underavg 66¢	$500	$484.84	-$15.15	53% 41-37 (78)
poshposh	Underavg 82.4¢	$394.48	$418.88	+$24.4	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
GO gotozer0CTR	Overavg 23.7¢	$143.33	$187.59	+$44.26	57% 12-9 (21)
JA JabJabichCTR	Overavg 20.9¢	$103.77	$106.75	+$2.98	31% 30-66 (96)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Underavg 78¢	$39.78	$40.04	+$0.26	39% 118-185 (303)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Underavg 79.9¢	$36.69	$36.06	-$0.63	50% 155-156 (311)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 76.7¢	$27.6	$27.9	+$0.3	48% 288-310 (598)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 85.8¢	$22.15	$22.5	+$0.35	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 86¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	41% 698-1011 (1709)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$660.96

Value

$714

PnL

+$53.04

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$484.84

PnL

-$15.15

Record

20%

48-193 (241)

GamblingAddict12345

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$484.84

PnL

-$15.15

Record

53%

41-37 (78)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$394.48

Value

$418.88

PnL

+$24.4

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

gotozer0CTR

Over

Invested

$143.33

Value

$187.59

PnL

+$44.26

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

JabJabichCTR

Over

Invested

$103.77

Value

$106.75

PnL

+$2.98

Record

31%

30-66 (96)

mouzsynapse<$100

Under

Invested

$39.78

Value

$40.04

PnL

+$0.26

Record

39%

118-185 (303)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Under

Invested

$36.69

Value

$36.06

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

155-156 (311)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$22.15

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.