Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali: O/U 0.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Over92¢Under8¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$108.22

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 91.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,979

Combined PnL+$89.92

Under5 traders

Total Value$279.49

Total Shares2,784

Combined PnL+$18.31

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 91¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$1.06	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
NO Notradecopy	Overavg 66¢	$500	$534.09	+$34.09	20% 48-193 (241)
E4 e46m3	Overavg 68¢	$260.12	$296.51	+$36.38	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Overavg 66¢	$272.28	$290.84	+$18.56	53% 41-37 (78)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Underavg 9¢	$218.19	$229.67	+$11.48	24% 56-173 (229)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 89.9¢	$146.47	$148.33	+$1.86	55% 469-381 (850)
GO gotozer0CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$25	$25	+$0	57% 12-9 (21)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 6.7¢	$15.84	$22.34	+$6.5	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 92¢	$14.72	$14.8	+$0.08	48% 288-310 (598)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$1.02	$1.28	+$0.25	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.13	$1.2	+$0.07	42% 1002-1373 (2375)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,956.65

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$1.06

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

Notradecopy

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$534.09

PnL

+$34.09

Record

20%

48-193 (241)

e46m3

Over

Invested

$260.12

Value

$296.51

PnL

+$36.38

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

GamblingAddict12345

Over

Invested

$272.28

Value

$290.84

PnL

+$18.56

Record

53%

41-37 (78)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Under

Invested

$218.19

Value

$229.67

PnL

+$11.48

Record

24%

56-173 (229)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$146.47

Value

$148.33

PnL

+$1.86

Record

55%

469-381 (850)

gotozer0CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$25

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.84

Value

$22.34

PnL

+$6.5

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$14.72

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.