Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Deportivo Pereira, while the market favors América de Cali (51%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: América de Cali (-1.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Deportivo Pereira (75%) · Deportivo Pereira at 50¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

América de Cali51¢Deportivo Pereira49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Deportivo Pereira

Consensus Traders

Deportivo Pereira 75%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$227.3

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 49.5¢

-8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDeportivo Pereira at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Pereira

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors América de Cali 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

América de Cali51%

Deportivo Pereira50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

América de Cali3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,367

Combined PnL+$359.69

Deportivo Pereira9 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,688

Combined PnL-$132.39

América de Cali — 25%Deportivo Pereira — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Pereira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDeportivo Pereira 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDeportivo Pereira 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Deportivo Pereira 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	América de Caliavg 44.8¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$349.38	— 5-2 (7)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 55.1¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$24.42	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 49¢	$781.06	$781.06	+$0	35% 440-800 (1240)
BI biying88888CTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 55¢	$451	$426.4	-$24.6	44% 202-259 (461)
VeryLucky888CTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 54.4¢	$422.55	$294	-$40.98	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 54¢	$261.62	$259.2	-$2.42	59% 502-345 (847)
BA BayupatiCTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 55¢	$274.75	$247.28	-$27.48	18% 31-145 (176)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Deportivo Pereiraavg 56.4¢	$240.37	$227.91	-$12.46	56% 463-370 (833)
VE Venusian<$100	América de Caliavg 43.6¢	$79.54	$87.53	+$7.99	36% 948-1669 (2617)
RN1CTR<$100	Deportivo Pereiraavg 48¢	$43.9	$44.81	+$0.91	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
FL Flaznorp<$100	América de Caliavg 38¢	$10.36	$12.68	+$2.32	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Deportivo Pereiraavg 62¢	$6.2	$5.25	-$0.95	41% 694-1010 (1704)

viper0310

América de Cali

Invested

$2,760.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$349.38

Record

—

5-2 (7)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$2,457.94

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$24.42

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

LuckyLooCTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$781.06

Value

$781.06

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

biying88888CTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$451

Value

$426.4

PnL

-$24.6

Record

44%

202-259 (461)

VeryLucky888CTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$422.55

Value

$294

PnL

-$40.98

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$261.62

Value

$259.2

PnL

-$2.42

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

BayupatiCTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$274.75

Value

$247.28

PnL

-$27.48

Record

18%

31-145 (176)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$240.37

Value

$227.91

PnL

-$12.46

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

Venusian<$100

América de Cali

Invested

$79.54

Value

$87.53

PnL

+$7.99

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

RN1CTR<$100

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$43.9

Value

$44.81

PnL

+$0.91

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Flaznorp<$100

América de Cali

Invested

$10.36

Value

$12.68

PnL

+$2.32

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.95

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

Research grade

NeutralDeportivo Pereira at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Pereira

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors América de Cali 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Pereira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDeportivo Pereira 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDeportivo Pereira 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Deportivo Pereira 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Deportivo Pereira wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.