Exact Score: Deportivo Pereira 0 - 0 América de Cali?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$3.84

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 95.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,134

Combined PnL+$290.6

Yes5 traders

Total Value$119.8

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL-$286.76

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 88.9¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$137.73	59% 502-347 (849)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 86.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$119.06	26% 61-178 (239)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 90.9¢	$290.89	$300.71	+$9.82	55% 499-401 (900)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 87.4¢	$257.96	$275.97	+$18.01	39% 3675-5843 (9518)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 92¢	$276	$268.62	+$5.99	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
LO looppauCTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$241.27	$85.23	-$74.3	100% 684-0 (684)
itoney17CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$21.86	$18.74	-$3.12	— 11-2 (13)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$1.1K	$10.2	-$212.02	48% 301-330 (631)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.12	$3.17	+$1.06	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.83	$2.46	+$1.63	42% 2637-3674 (6311)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,424.24

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$137.73

Record

59%

502-347 (849)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$1,298.33

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$119.06

Record

26%

61-178 (239)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$290.89

Value

$300.71

PnL

+$9.82

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$257.96

Value

$275.97

PnL

+$18.01

Record

39%

3675-5843 (9518)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$276

Value

$268.62

PnL

+$5.99

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

looppauCTR

Yes

Invested

$241.27

Value

$85.23

PnL

-$74.3

Record

100%

684-0 (684)

itoney17CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.86

Value

$18.74

PnL

-$3.12

Record

—

11-2 (13)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,126.21

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$212.02

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$1.06

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$1.63

Record

42%

2637-3674 (6311)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.