Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$191.14

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 92.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares7,149

Combined PnL+$563.11

Yes9 traders

Total Value$876

Total Shares8,652

Combined PnL-$371.97

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 82.9¢	$4.4K	$4.9K	+$462.37	36% 948-1669 (2617)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 83¢	$610.04	$665.17	+$55.12	32% 99-207 (306)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$999.59	$617.4	-$382.2	4% 19-516 (535)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 87.6¢	$518.09	$541.32	+$23.23	37% 970-1635 (2605)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$388.61	$355.31	-$24	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.7¢	$258.22	$263.21	+$4.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.8¢	$120.26	$92.1	-$28.98
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 89¢	$186.98	$188.03	+$1.05	47% 895-994 (1889)
tradecraft	Noavg 83¢	$123.89	$136.58	+$12.69	30% 335-776 (1111)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 81¢	$87.61	$96.26	+$8.65	36% 933-1644 (2577)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$85.53	$87.78	+$2.25	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$55.04	$57.24	+$2.2	33% 168-335 (503)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$41.14	$43.71	+$2.57	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$41.14	$43.71	+$2.57	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$18.31	$18.75	+$0.44	42% 995-1363 (2358)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$3.96	$4.18	+$0.22	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$2.77	$2.71	-$0.06	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.53	+$0.03	41% 694-1010 (1704)

Venusian

Invested

$4,437.54

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$462.37

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Oddstorm

Invested

$610.04

Value

$665.17

PnL

+$55.12

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$999.59

Value

$617.4

PnL

-$382.2

Record

19-516 (535)

MadridTime

Invested

$518.09

Value

$541.32

PnL

+$23.23

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$388.61

Value

$355.31

PnL

-$24

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

No$258.2290.7¢+$4.98

Yes$120.269.8¢-$28.98

SnakeBall

Invested

$186.98

Value

$188.03

PnL

+$1.05

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

tradecraft

Invested

$123.89

Value

$136.58

PnL

+$12.69

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$87.61

Value

$96.26

PnL

+$8.65

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.53

Value

$87.78

PnL

+$2.25

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.04

Value

$57.24

PnL

+$2.2

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.14

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$2.57

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.14

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$2.57

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.31

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$0.44

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.