Will América de Cali win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$67.05

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 75¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL-$15.61

No5 traders

Total Value$486.48

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL-$51.44

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 66.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$35.56	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 32.2¢	$398.42	$365.51	-$32.91	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 57.1¢	$73.93	$93.89	+$19.96	30% 335-776 (1111)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$88.67	$76.66	-$12.01	42% 995-1363 (2358)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$27.1	$24.98	-$2.12	35% 440-800 (1240)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$24.9	$10.4	-$0.12	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$10.23	$9.74	-$0.5	37% 970-1635 (2605)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$13.5	$9.6	-$3.9	41% 694-1010 (1704)
BA Bayupati<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$1.65	$1.77	+$0.12	18% 31-145 (176)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,094.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.56

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$398.42

Value

$365.51

PnL

-$32.91

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.93

Value

$93.89

PnL

+$19.96

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$88.67

Value

$76.66

PnL

-$12.01

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

$24.98

PnL

-$2.12

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.9

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$10.23

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.5

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$3.9

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

Bayupati<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.12

Record

18%

31-145 (176)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.