Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 57¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$266.09
-$7.6
59.9¢ → 57.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 60¢ | $139.05 | $132.19 | -$6.86 | 52% 49502-46467 (95969) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $139.23 | $59.17 | +$0.7 | 57% 22806-16903 (39709) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $108.87 | $46.27 | +$0.54 | 57% 22656-16901 (39557) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $27.59 | $25.59 | -$2 | 51% 28824-28178 (57002) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $2.85 | $2.88 | +$0.03 | 45% 2757-3338 (6095) |
Invested
$139.05
Value
$132.19
PnL
-$6.86
Record
52%
49502-46467 (95969)
Invested
$139.23
Value
$59.17
PnL
+$0.7
Record
57%
22806-16903 (39709)
Invested
$108.87
Value
$46.27
PnL
+$0.54
Record
57%
22656-16901 (39557)
Invested
$27.59
Value
$25.59
PnL
-$2
Record
51%
28824-28178 (57002)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.03
Record
45%
2757-3338 (6095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.