Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-11-08?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$9.8K
$1.2K
79.9¢ → 98.6¢
+23% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 80.2¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$161.18 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$417.61 | 52% 50-46 (96) |
 RN1 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$269.49 | 54% 248-213 (461) |
TH thirdt1me | Noavg 77.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | +$183.49 | 0% 0-36 (36) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 77.2¢ | $686.16 | $832.81 | +$146.65 | 48% 42-46 (88) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 78¢ | $117.79 | $119.3 | +$1.51 | 7% 15-191 (206) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $98.75 | $98.75 | -$0 | 26% 102-296 (398) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $97.07 | $98.31 | +$1.24 | 9% 16-167 (183) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $80.89 | $81.53 | +$0.64 | 27% 100-275 (375) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $31.55 | $31.95 | +$0.4 | 26% 97-281 (378) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $17.1 | $14.99 | -$2.11 | 36% 86-155 (241) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $5.53 | $5.61 | +$0.09 | 50% 76-76 (152) |
Invested
$3,484.25
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$161.18
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Invested
$2,140.44
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$417.61
Record
52%
50-46 (96)
RN1Invested
$1,140.58
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$269.49
Record
54%
248-213 (461)
Invested
$1,156.6
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$183.49
Record
0%
0-36 (36)
Invested
$686.16
Value
$832.81
PnL
+$146.65
Record
48%
42-46 (88)
Invested
$117.79
Value
$119.3
PnL
+$1.51
Record
7%
15-191 (206)
Invested
$98.75
Value
$98.75
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
102-296 (398)
Invested
$97.07
Value
$98.31
PnL
+$1.24
Record
9%
16-167 (183)
Invested
$80.89
Value
$81.53
PnL
+$0.64
Record
27%
100-275 (375)
Invested
$31.55
Value
$31.95
PnL
+$0.4
Record
26%
97-281 (378)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$14.99
PnL
-$2.11
Record
36%
86-155 (241)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
76-76 (152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.