Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 62¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 14

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$322.55

Combined PnL

$7.81

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 61.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$263.19

Total Shares410

Combined PnL+$7.48

No4 traders

Total Value$59.25

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$86.85	$90.41	+$3.56	37% 1018-1700 (2718)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$73.04	$74.3	+$1.26	56% 461-367 (828)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yesavg 61.4¢	$67.58	$69.85	+$2.27	48% 286-304 (590)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 36.8¢	$48.12	$48.37	+$0.25	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$19.04	$18.64	-$0.4	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$28.1	$10	+$0.8	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$5.62	$5.62	+$0	37% 957-1658 (2615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$3.33	$3.33	+$0	48% 2066-2225 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.93	+$0.07	42% 990-1359 (2349)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.85

Value

$90.41

PnL

+$3.56

Record

37%

1018-1700 (2718)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.04

Value

$74.3

PnL

+$1.26

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.58

Value

$69.85

PnL

+$2.27

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$48.12

Value

$48.37

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.64

PnL

-$0.4

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.