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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will CA Bucaramanga vs. Fortaleza FC end in a draw?

Resolved No. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

18

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$798.21

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders
Total Value$5.0K
Total Shares5,028
Combined PnL+$2.8K
Yes11 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares6,883
Combined PnL$-3.6K
No — 39%Yes — 61%
GO
GoalLineGhost
No

Invested

$1,266.42

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

FL
FlaznorpARB<$100
Yes

Invested

$2,154.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Both legs:

Yes$1,508.6162.1¢$-1.5K
No$646.3557.3¢+$480.9
TH
thirdt1me
No

Invested

$578.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$780.34

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

LI
LightParadoxCTR
Yes

Invested

$1,395.54

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

LI
LimousinCTR
Yes

Invested

$1,396.01

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

VE
VenusianCTR
Yes

Invested

$669.95

Value

—

PnL

-$669.95

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

TO
topdogbigboi
No

Invested

$263.68

Value

$384.98

PnL

+$121.3

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

0X
0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000
No

Invested

$147.24

Value

$218.37

PnL

+$71.13

Record

25%

63-191 (254)

MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$74.67

Value

—

PnL

-$74.67

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

SL
SlickRick123CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$10.97

Value

—

PnL

-$10.97

Record

35%

399-742 (1141)

PO
poposub<$100
No

Invested

$10.25

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.75

Record

—

10-7 (17)

FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$17.8

Value

—

PnL

-$17.8

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

0X
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100
No

Invested

$4.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.4

Record

45%

405-503 (908)

dips.CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$5.61

Value

—

PnL

-$5.61

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

SU
suitcase6628CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

—

PnL

-$7.8

Record

65%

646-351 (997)

SU
suntoriCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$4.57

Value

—

PnL

-$4.57

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

SM
smithagentCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$3.36

Value

—

PnL

-$3.36

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

US
User7429CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$32

Value

—

PnL

-$7.83

Record

41%

353-508 (861)

AH
aHjCz<$100
No

Invested

$48.2

Value

—

PnL

-$9.87

Record

25%

1331-4013 (5344)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x8696802c...1e1f92
Slug
col1-cab-foc-2026-11-14-draw

Traders in this Market

GO

GoalLineGhost

No — $3.1K

+$1.8K
FL

Flaznorp

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.0K
TH

thirdt1me

No — $1.3K

+$780.34
LI

LightParadox

CTR

Yes — $0

$-1.4K
LI

Limousin

CTR

Yes — $0

$-1.4K
VE

Venusian

CTR

Yes — $0

-$669.95
TO

topdogbigboi

No — $384.98

+$121.3
0X

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

No — $218.37

+$71.13
MA

MadridTime

CTR

Yes — $0

-$74.67
SL

SlickRick123

CTR

Yes — $0

-$10.97
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