Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 48¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes48¢No52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.27

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 47.5¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$277.6

Total Shares477

Combined PnL-$14.22

No9 traders

Total Value$81.08

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$6.95

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$694.8	$709.01	+$14.21	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.5¢	$443.71	$482.63	+$38.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$251.09	$226.38	-$24.71
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 59.9¢	$106.06	$100.89	-$5.17	47% 312-350 (662)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 60.4¢	$73.12	$68.97	-$4.15	55% 527-431 (958)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$47.7	$46.08	-$1.62	49% 1212-1274 (2486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$45.91	$44.43	-$1.47	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Noavg 50¢	$25	$25.25	+$0.25	48% 283-303 (586)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$19.04	$17.23	-$1.81	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 22¢	$6.38	$12.33	+$5.94	45% 699-859 (1558)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$10.03	$10.31	+$0.29	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
dips.<$100	Noavg 22¢	$5.06	$9.77	+$4.71	47% 1014-1141 (2155)
RN1<$100	Noavg 42¢	$7.24	$7.33	+$0.09	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 38¢	$11.4	$6.6	-$4.8	41% 705-1014 (1719)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 40¢	$3.33	$3.54	+$0.21	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 39¢	$3.19	$3.48	+$0.29	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	48% 2212-2378 (4590)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$694.8

Value

$709.01

PnL

+$14.21

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Both legs:

No$443.7145.5¢+$38.92

Yes$251.0956¢-$24.71

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.06

Value

$100.89

PnL

-$5.17

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.12

Value

$68.97

PnL

-$4.15

Record

55%

527-431 (958)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.7

Value

$46.08

PnL

-$1.62

Record

49%

1212-1274 (2486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.91

Value

$44.43

PnL

-$1.47

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

thirdt1me<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

283-303 (586)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$1.81

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$6.38

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$5.94

Record

45%

699-859 (1558)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.31

PnL

+$0.29

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

dips.<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$4.71

Record

47%

1014-1141 (2155)

RN1<$100

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.33

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$4.8

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.29

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.