Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-11-02?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$117.04

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 86.5¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,621

Combined PnL+$114.34

Yes8 traders

Total Value$310.81

Total Shares1,862

Combined PnL-$231.37

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67.7¢	$470.82	$570.68	+$99.86	50% 26666-26573 (53239)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 20.1¢	$630.47	$500.02	-$130.45	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.1¢	$425.65	$285.43	-$140.22
└ No leg	Noavg 82.6¢	$204.82	$214.6	+$9.78
oieshfn345	Noavg 86¢	$444.51	$425.1	-$19.41	57% 1930-1438 (3368)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 65.2¢	$177.32	$219.35	+$54.5	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 86¢	$214.39	$208.86	-$5.53	54% 58447-50668 (109115)
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$160.73	$161.66	+$0.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.3¢	$53.67	$47.2	-$6.47
LI Limousin	Noavg 86¢	$134.59	$111.37	-$23.22	54% 626-537 (1163)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 31.9¢	$187.6	$81.82	-$105.79	54% 629-546 (1175)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$145.7	$77.27	-$68.44	53% 16320-14486 (30806)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$133.04	$75.51	-$57.53	50% 34946-34393 (69339)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$57.45	$61.54	+$4.09	49% 13651-14457 (28108)
LA lavendergooms<$100	Noavg 68¢	$19.64	$23.69	+$4.04	52% 2654-2409 (5063)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 86¢	$16.77	$16.87	+$0.1	52% 605-551 (1156)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$9.52	$7.14	-$2.38	45% 13208-16070 (29278)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.16	$6.59	-$1.57	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$3.6	+$0.6	54% 6628-5562 (12190)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$4.27	$2.14	-$2.14	50% 19928-20296 (40224)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.6	$1.8	+$0.2	47% 10297-11504 (21801)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 84¢	$1.05	$1.08	+$0.03	48% 5733-6182 (11915)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$470.82

Value

$570.68

PnL

+$99.86

Record

50%

26666-26573 (53239)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$630.47

Value

$500.02

PnL

-$130.45

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

Both legs:

Yes$425.6520.1¢-$140.22

No$204.8282.6¢+$9.78

oieshfn345

Invested

$444.51

Value

$425.1

PnL

-$19.41

Record

57%

1930-1438 (3368)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$177.32

Value

$219.35

PnL

+$54.5

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$214.39

Value

$208.86

PnL

-$5.53

Record

54%

58447-50668 (109115)

Both legs:

No$160.7386¢+$0.93

Yes$53.6715.3¢-$6.47

Limousin

Invested

$134.59

Value

$111.37

PnL

-$23.22

Record

54%

626-537 (1163)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$187.6

Value

$81.82

PnL

-$105.79

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.7

Value

$77.27

PnL

-$68.44

Record

53%

16320-14486 (30806)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.04

Value

$75.51

PnL

-$57.53

Record

50%

34946-34393 (69339)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.45

Value

$61.54

PnL

+$4.09

Record

49%

13651-14457 (28108)

lavendergooms<$100

Invested

$19.64

Value

$23.69

PnL

+$4.04

Record

52%

2654-2409 (5063)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$16.77

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

605-551 (1156)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$2.38

Record

45%

13208-16070 (29278)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$1.57

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

6628-5562 (12190)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$2.14

Record

50%

19928-20296 (40224)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

10297-11504 (21801)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.