Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CA Bucaramanga vs. Atlético Nacional: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 41¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$548.31
-$24.42
41.1¢ → 41¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 41.1¢ | $426.43 | $423.35 | -$3.08 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $49.84 | $52.51 | +$2.67 | 50% 7275-7377 (14652) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $74.82 | $42.51 | -$32.31 | 50% 34946-34393 (69339) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $9.52 | $11.73 | +$2.21 | 45% 13208-16070 (29278) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $5 | $8.2 | +$3.2 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $4.12 | $6.76 | +$2.64 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.99 | $3.25 | +$0.26 | 46% 9307-11077 (20384) |
Invested
$426.43
Value
$423.35
PnL
-$3.08
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$49.84
Value
$52.51
PnL
+$2.67
Record
50%
7275-7377 (14652)
Invested
$74.82
Value
$42.51
PnL
-$32.31
Record
50%
34946-34393 (69339)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$11.73
PnL
+$2.21
Record
45%
13208-16070 (29278)
Invested
$5
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$3.2
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.12
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$2.64
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.26
Record
46%
9307-11077 (20384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.