Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Once Caldas win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
No 40%
$3.8K
-$432.03
Smart Money Signal
12 of 27 top traders (44%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$318.9 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 79¢ | $797.41 | $1.0K | +$211.97 | 47% 985-1122 (2107) |
TH thirdt1me | Noavg 83.3¢ | $291.66 | $150 | +$38.5 | 48% 294-314 (608) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 90.1¢ | $127.4 | $108.41 | -$18.99 | 39% 419-652 (1071) |
 Secondhandvinyl<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $89.09 | $89.99 | +$0.9 | 77% 294-89 (383) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $108.72 | — | -$108.72 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $20 | $38.48 | +$18.48 | 41% 471-687 (1158) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $50.06 | — | -$50.06 | 78% 805-225 (1030) |
 dips.CTR | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $155.79 | — | -$141.81 | 47% 1041-1174 (2215) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $15.23 | $17.68 | +$2.45 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $90.53 | — | -$90.53 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $10 | +$3.2 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $7.96 | $8.94 | +$0.98 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $5 | +$1.6 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.7¢ | $98.51 | — | -$98.51 | 65% 646-351 (997) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $103 | — | -$103 | 49% 300-314 (614) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $65.36 | — | -$65.36 | 25% 1331-4013 (5344) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $24.05 | — | -$24.05 | 53% 2249-2030 (4279) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $74.1 | — | -$74.1 | 35% 399-742 (1141) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $60.22 | — | -$60.22 | 45% 717-880 (1597) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $16.67 | — | -$5.67 | 48% 2245-2407 (4652) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $8.32 | — | -$8.32 | 41% 353-508 (861) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $5.15 | — | -$5.15 | 45% 405-503 (908) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.61 | — | -$1.61 | 25% 63-191 (254) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 42% 1060-1490 (2550) |
Invested
$2,718.29
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$318.9
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$797.41
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$211.97
Record
47%
985-1122 (2107)
Invested
$291.66
Value
$150
PnL
+$38.5
Record
48%
294-314 (608)
Invested
$127.4
Value
$108.41
PnL
-$18.99
Record
39%
419-652 (1071)
Secondhandvinyl<$100Invested
$89.09
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$0.9
Record
77%
294-89 (383)
Invested
$108.72
Value
—
PnL
-$108.72
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
Invested
$20
Value
$38.48
PnL
+$18.48
Record
41%
471-687 (1158)
Invested
$50.06
Value
—
PnL
-$50.06
Record
78%
805-225 (1030)
dips.CTRInvested
$155.79
Value
—
PnL
-$141.81
Record
47%
1041-1174 (2215)
Invested
$15.23
Value
$17.68
PnL
+$2.45
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$90.53
Value
—
PnL
-$90.53
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.2
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
Invested
$7.96
Value
$8.94
PnL
+$0.98
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.6
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
Invested
$98.51
Value
—
PnL
-$98.51
Record
65%
646-351 (997)
Invested
$103
Value
—
PnL
-$103
Record
49%
300-314 (614)
Invested
$65.36
Value
—
PnL
-$65.36
Record
25%
1331-4013 (5344)
Invested
$24.05
Value
—
PnL
-$24.05
Record
53%
2249-2030 (4279)
Invested
$74.1
Value
—
PnL
-$74.1
Record
35%
399-742 (1141)
Invested
$60.22
Value
—
PnL
-$60.22
Record
45%
717-880 (1597)
Invested
$16.67
Value
—
PnL
-$5.67
Record
48%
2245-2407 (4652)
Invested
$8.32
Value
—
PnL
-$8.32
Record
41%
353-508 (861)
Invested
$5.15
Value
—
PnL
-$5.15
Record
45%
405-503 (908)
Invested
$1.61
Value
—
PnL
-$1.61
Record
25%
63-191 (254)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
42%
1060-1490 (2550)