Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$60.64

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 55.5¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$842.24

Total Shares1,547

Combined PnL+$43.65

Yes7 traders

Total Value$217.58

Total Shares433

Combined PnL+$16.99

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$107.4	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.2¢	$900.84	$926.57	+$25.73
└ No leg	Noavg 42.7¢	$294.76	$376.43	+$81.67
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 55¢	$548.9	$553.89	+$4.99	39% 578-906 (1484)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 39.2¢	$152.02	$211.33	+$59.31	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$115.88	$136.91	+$21.03	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.6¢	$85.91	$81.92	-$4
└ No leg	Noavg 30.8¢	$29.97	$54.99	+$25.03
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$51.25	$79.38	+$28.13	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.4¢	$42.99	$44.06	+$1.06	47% 1014-1141 (2155)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$45.58	$29.92	-$15.66	63% 222-133 (355)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$45.16	$27.64	-$17.52	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$22.5	$22.75	+$0.25	48% 283-303 (586)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$20.5	$22.25	+$1.75	65% 635-348 (983)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$14.08	$15.22	+$1.15	48% 281-306 (587)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 55¢	$13.75	$13.88	+$0.13	38% 395-632 (1027)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$11.5	$11.18	-$0.32	55% 527-431 (958)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 63¢	$9.45	$8.85	-$0.6	41% 705-1014 (1719)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 64¢	$8.34	$8.39	+$0.05	42% 1051-1465 (2516)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$3.69	$4.01	+$0.31	45% 699-859 (1558)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$4.66	$3.66	-$1	48% 2212-2378 (4590)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$45.81	$3.44	-$1.39	54% 1473-1278 (2751)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,195.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$107.4

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Both legs:

Yes$900.8444.2¢+$25.73

No$294.7642.7¢+$81.67

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$548.9

Value

$553.89

PnL

+$4.99

Record

39%

578-906 (1484)

MadridTime

Invested

$152.02

Value

$211.33

PnL

+$59.31

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$115.88

Value

$136.91

PnL

+$21.03

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Both legs:

Yes$85.9145.6¢-$4

No$29.9730.8¢+$25.03

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.25

Value

$79.38

PnL

+$28.13

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.99

Value

$44.06

PnL

+$1.06

Record

47%

1014-1141 (2155)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.58

Value

$29.92

PnL

-$15.66

Record

63%

222-133 (355)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$45.16

Value

$27.64

PnL

-$17.52

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

283-303 (586)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.5

Value

$22.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

65%

635-348 (983)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.08

Value

$15.22

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

281-306 (587)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$13.75

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

55%

527-431 (958)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$9.45

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$0.6

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

1051-1465 (2516)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.69

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.31

Record

45%

699-859 (1558)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$45.81

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$1.39

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.