Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 20¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
$192.67
$12.28
18.7¢ → 20¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 18.2¢ | $138.51 | $152.53 | +$14.03 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $38.01 | $36.2 | -$1.81 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.8¢ | $2.9 | $2.94 | +$0.04 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $1 | +$0.03 | 52% 9006-8159 (17165) |
Invested
$138.51
Value
$152.53
PnL
+$14.03
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$38.01
Value
$36.2
PnL
-$1.81
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
9006-8159 (17165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.