AD Pasto vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 98¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$7.8K
$25.84
71¢ → 97.5¢
+37% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 72¢ | $4.2K | $4.9K | +$696.16 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 70.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$449.46 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
 RN1 | Underavg 65.2¢ | $487.2 | $484.83 | -$2.37 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Overavg 35¢ | $1.4K | $240 | $-1.2K | 55% 22-18 (40) |
FE ferdinand2 | Underavg 69.3¢ | $136.64 | $173.09 | +$40.88 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
SU suntori | Underavg 74¢ | $98.58 | $100.58 | +$2 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
 dips.<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $23.8 | $23.45 | -$0.35 | 46% 593-709 (1302) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $13.4 | -$0.2 | 43% 400-536 (936) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $8.97 | $9.23 | +$0.26 | 39% 71-109 (180) |
Invested
$4,215.19
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$696.16
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$1,786.85
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$449.46
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
RN1Invested
$487.2
Value
$484.83
PnL
-$2.37
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$1,399.99
Value
$240
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
55%
22-18 (40)
Invested
$136.64
Value
$173.09
PnL
+$40.88
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$98.58
Value
$100.58
PnL
+$2
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
dips.<$100Invested
$23.8
Value
$23.45
PnL
-$0.35
Record
46%
593-709 (1302)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$13.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
43%
400-536 (936)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$9.23
PnL
+$0.26
Record
39%
71-109 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.