AD Pasto vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
$421.55
52.4¢ → 81¢
+55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 53.3¢ | $2.9K | $3.6K | +$699.19 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 50.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$323.59 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Overavg 43.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.1K | -$693.91 | 55% 22-18 (40) |
FI FinalOrderCTR | Overavg 54.6¢ | $150 | $240.27 | +$90.27 | 18% 7-32 (39) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $247.61 | $214.79 | -$32.82 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.8¢ | $85.61 | $122.49 | +$36.87 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43¢ | $162 | $92.3 | -$69.7 | |
SU suntori<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $28.57 | $33.48 | +$4.91 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 29.9¢ | $20.39 | $21.12 | +$0.73 | 48% 652-699 (1351) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 46.1¢ | $8.06 | $6.61 | -$1.45 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
MO mouzsynapse<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.45 | $0.68 | -$1.77 | 39% 71-109 (180) |
Invested
$2,881.86
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$699.19
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$1,081.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$323.59
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$1,753.91
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$693.91
Record
55%
22-18 (40)
Invested
$150
Value
$240.27
PnL
+$90.27
Record
18%
7-32 (39)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$247.61
Value
$214.79
PnL
-$32.82
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.57
Value
$33.48
PnL
+$4.91
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
poshposh<$100Invested
$20.39
Value
$21.12
PnL
+$0.73
Record
48%
652-699 (1351)
Invested
$8.06
Value
$6.61
PnL
-$1.45
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$1.77
Record
39%
71-109 (180)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.