Spread: CDP Junior FC (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold AD Pasto (56%) · AD Pasto at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

CDP Junior FC12¢AD Pasto88¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AD Pasto

Consensus Traders

AD Pasto 56%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$164.3

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 88¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAD Pasto at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AD Pasto

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CDP Junior FC12%

AD Pasto88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AD Pasto5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL+$68.41

CDP Junior FC4 traders

Total Value$217.46

Total Shares1,067

Combined PnL-$232.7

AD Pasto — 56%CDP Junior FC — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on AD Pasto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAD Pasto 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000AD Pasto 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mouzsynapse	AD Pastoavg 59.4¢	$608.46	$790.08	+$181.62	39% 71-109 (180)
FL Flaznorp	AD Pastoavg 79.3¢	$732.71	$587.36	-$145.35	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
LU LuckyLooCTR	CDP Junior FCavg 41¢	$283.63	$157.95	-$125.67	36% 269-473 (742)
poshposh	AD Pastoavg 58¢	$104.55	$124.86	+$20.31	48% 652-699 (1351)
SN SnakeBall<$100	AD Pastoavg 58.6¢	$37.9	$49.92	+$12.02	47% 564-628 (1192)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	CDP Junior FCavg 46¢	$105.77	$26.44	-$79.33	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	CDP Junior FCavg 43¢	$40.74	$21.63	-$19.11	35% 657-1232 (1889)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	CDP Junior FCavg 40¢	$20.02	$11.43	-$8.59	28% 110-277 (387)
FE ferdinand2<$100	AD Pastoavg 81¢	$4.05	$3.86	-$0.19	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

mouzsynapse

AD Pasto

Invested

$608.46

Value

$790.08

PnL

+$181.62

Record

39%

71-109 (180)

Flaznorp

AD Pasto

Invested

$732.71

Value

$587.36

PnL

-$145.35

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

LuckyLooCTR

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$283.63

Value

$157.95

PnL

-$125.67

Record

36%

269-473 (742)

poshposh

AD Pasto

Invested

$104.55

Value

$124.86

PnL

+$20.31

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

SnakeBall<$100

AD Pasto

Invested

$37.9

Value

$49.92

PnL

+$12.02

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

GoalLineGhostCTR

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$105.77

Value

$26.44

PnL

-$79.33

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$40.74

Value

$21.63

PnL

-$19.11

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

forecastication4CTR<$100

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$20.02

Value

$11.43

PnL

-$8.59

Record

28%

110-277 (387)

ferdinand2<$100

AD Pasto

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

NeutralAD Pasto at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AD Pasto

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on AD Pasto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAD Pasto 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000AD Pasto 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AD Pasto wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.